Let’s Get Started!

I attended a very interesting panel at the recently concluded winter committee meetings of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) in Washington, D.C. Speakers representing the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), and the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) laid out their respective pathways to achieving an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050, which is considered by many to be the reduction level necessary to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere at or below 450 parts per million (ppm) of CO2-equivalent – from about 388 ppm today – and hopefully keep the global average temperature from rising more than 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels.

The presentations focused primarily on the electricity sector, which accounts for roughly 40% of annual U.S. CO2 emissions, and although the scenarios described were varied, sometimes markedly, there were two common features:

First, accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources, including solar, combined with much greater attention to energy efficiency, plays a key role in the ability to reduce carbon emissions in all three scenarios.

Second, each speaker stressed the importance of federal policies to accelerate the development and deployment of carbon-free or low-carbon technologies.

Hank Courtwright, EPRI Senior Vice President for Member and External Relations, reported on EPRI’s Prism analysis, which determined that electric sector CO2 emissions can be reduced by 41% in 2030 relative to 2005 emissions with renewables representing 15% of total electricity supply.

Alan Nogee, UCS Director of Climate and Energy Policy and Strategy, described a recent UCS study that found that U.S. energy-related GHG emissions can be reduced 56% by 2030 relative to 2005 levels, assuming a 40% electricity contribution from renewables and aggressive deployment of energy efficiency measures. The UCS analysis also calculated that consumers would actually save money relative to a business-as-usual scenario partly because the resulting volume production of technologies drives down costs. UCS is a leading advocate for a strong national renewable electricity standard.

Robert Fri, Senior Fellow Emeritus at Resources for the Future summarized the results of a NAS study of America’s Energy Future, which found that “with a sustained national commitment, it is possible to decarbonize the electricity system.” The NAS analysis posits a 20% contribution from renewables by 2035. Importantly, he stressed that because of the long-lived nature of electricity generation investments, progress achieved before 2020 will largely determine the outcomes for 2050, making near-term national policy action all the more critical.

Finally, Jill Duggan, a Visiting Fellow at the World Resources Institute shared lessons learned from the United Kingdom where the government has already moved aggressively in establishing policies to address climate change. Among these lessons is that it is cheaper and easier to reduce emissions, at least in the early years, than initially estimated. Her key message was that we “just need to get started” with policy implementation to give industry the certainty it needs to take action.

So, what are we waiting for? Let’s get started!